It’s official: things are changing around us.
These changes are coming as a result of the 100 days-old government in Washington initiating new game rules for its international affairs. The most evident changes can be seen in the Middle East.
According to Mr. Akiva Eldar, senior reporter for Haaretz, it would be an absolute disaster if the United States decided to ease pressure on Tehran with regards to its nuclear ambitions. Likewise, it would be a disaster if the administration in the White House considered lifting the boycott on Hamas or Hezbollah groups, or even froze the sanctions against Syria. Obama knows that “international pressure on neighbors was always an essential tool”. Recently, such pressure has proved to be effective. Moreover, the current regional circumstances can help Mr. Obama to take a more active role and really make history. Here is why:
- Hamas is politically and militarily weak and the people of Gaza are tired. Many in Gaza worry about how to feed their kids while their Ramallah neighbors, under the moderate government of Abu-Mazen, receive international support and money to build infrastructure.
- Hezbollah, as well as Hamas, have lost European support. The world has finally come to recognize the terrorist contribution to the region. Economically these groups could run out of money and “dry-up” very soon if the stream from Iran will cut out.
- For the first time in history Mubarak of Egypt is threatening Hezbollah and saying that it will consider taking military action against the group if Nassrallah (Hezbollah leader) decides to send martyrs to Egypt or if they interfere with Egypts interests at its border with Gaza. In other words, Egypt could point the finger directly to Iran and Syria, who both support Hamas and Hezbollah, and tell Asad: “We’re watching you. Stay out of Gaza’s interests.”
- The new Israeli government, although left-wing oriented, is ready for peace. It should be remembered that the historic peace treaty with Egypt was initiated, and resulted, from the same kind of “after-war” era.
Thus, although this may not be clear to everybody right now, I think this is Obama’s big chance.
Two wars within two years in the region have strongly impacted both sides. The US president needs to manage all players and ask for action. In the past international pressure has got the US government plenty of results. This week Tony Blaire, the Quartet Envoy to the Middle East, said that the establishment of a Palestinian state would be of great national interest to the US, especially in the eyes of Mr. Obama.
Everyone is welcome to choose between “carrots” and “sticks” and declare the new US foreign minister’s office. Mr. Netanyahu of Israel will be here at the White House next week to present his plan. Will he get the understanding we hope for?
By Oren Gulasa.
4 Comments
Oren, what do you think about the Pope’s recent statements that he looks forward to the West Bank wall being taken down. Also, do you see the two-state solution as the best way to achieve lasting peace in the region?
I think you might be at least partially right about this one Oren. The driving cause for the sudden change I think is the Palestinian in-fighting. Hamas has killed more Muslims than Jews in the past few years. I see the Muslim world, namely Fatah and Egypt, begining to take a hard look at their own position and realize that Israel is not the real enemy here. I firmly beleive in the two-state solution because it will take away the biggest rallying point of the jihadists – displaced Palestinians. This will further separate the moderates who simply want to restore the respect and image of the Palestinian people from those who want only death and destruction.
As far as a LASTING peace goes, do not underestimate Iran’s ability to stir up a hornet’s nest with a few well place rockets or suicide bombs aimed at any Muslim who stands with Israel.
But if you combine the two-state solution with Iraq’s rejection of Radical Islam, then you definately strike a devastating blow to the Jihadis who need more and more and more fresh recruits to offset their losses.
Yes, I do strongly believe in the two state soultion. In fact, in the past I was very active in Yizhak Rabin’s party “Havoda” and use to promote (and protest..kinda of PeaceCrop) this idea all over the country. The problem is, that was 1o years ago. it’s nothing new for the majority of Israelies.
The question remain, who will support the new state internationally?Will it become Iran-Syria allias? Will it become “Hamasten” instead of Palestin?
Jack, you nailed it. We, and the US need to support Fatah and Egypt in their position against radical Islamic groups. Will the European join us and shut their bank accounts?
The funny thing is Oren, the two biggest supporters of a Palestian state would be the US and Israel while Hamas and Hezbollah launched attacks aimed at any Muslim who supported it. Let’s see the Jihadis try to cry Palestinian suffering once that happens!