The more I read into the terrorist attack on Mumbai, India, the more I begin to realize one fact. The terrorists are getting desperate.
First, we need to look at a couple of important recent developments. All political opinions aside, these are the facts:
1. The US has come very close to victory in Iraq. A security deal was reached, only hours before the attacks, calling for a complete withdrawal of US troops from Iraq by the end of 2011.
2. Terrorist encampments in Peshawar and other tribal areas of Pakistan are being squeezed. The US and NATO have begun cross-border raids from Afghanistan to the west. Also, the Pakistani military has stepped up their campaign against these terrorists from the East. On top of this, several tribes in the region have begun to deny refuge and in some cases fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Recent retaliatory strikes against these tribes by terrorists only prove that this is happening more and more.
3. General David Petraeus has been placed in command of US forces in Afghanistan. This man is considered by many to be the architect of the US victory in Iraq and you better believe that Al Qaeda is afraid of this man and the increase in US and NATO forces in the region that is coming with him.
So what is the only recourse of these terrorists? Simple, attack and overthrow Pakistan.
How would they go about doing this? The Pakistani government is going through a rough time. The Benazir Bhouto assassination nearly tore the country apart. Were it not for a careful negotiation between Musharaf and his rivals the country could have very easily slipped into chaos.
This government now stands on shaky ground at best. There is a large population of devout Muslims in Pakistan who are very angry at their government for supporting the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. One more straw just might break the camel’s back.
So who do most Pakistanis hate almost as much as America? India.
This attack is the perfect tool to draw India into the fray and further unsettle the Pakistani government. If the government were to suddenly appear to be working with both India and America, then without a doubt, the Pakistani population would be pushed even further into uproar.
The only option is to do nothing. That’s right, do nothing. India is an up and coming superpower and they can take care of themselves. They do not need Pakistani or American support to defend themselves against terrorists. So all we need to do is ignore this attack.
If we ignore this attack, then India is more than capable of sealing off the Eastern boarder of Pakistan. The US and Pakistani government can continue to suffocate the terrorists in Peshawar and without an outright collapse of the Pakistani Government, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will have nowhere to run.
If we play into their hands, then India and Pakistan will shift their focus into some type of mutual security accord, or worse, go to all-out war with each other. Then the Pakistani government will not survive and Radical Islam will seize control of the country and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Stay the course. We are winning. Read between the lines. The terrorists are getting desperate.
Image Used in this Post
India Pakistan Border image courtesy of Flickr user matthewlees published under the CC license.
~Man Overboard
8 Comments
Doing nothing is an intriguing strategy. Some may scoff at us for inaction against terrorists, terrorists who singled out and American hostages. Others may see the calculated move as an opportunity for strong countries to defend themselves without getting the sense that America is sticking its nose into the business of others.
Not a strategy I tend to subscribe to, but in this case yes.
India is massive country and a must-have ally for the 21st century. Also, If Pakistan falls, the War on Terror will continue for at least another 10 years with devastating consequences to the entire world.
I agree on all counts for sure.
Jack- interesting and important post. You present a very good point here. While I don’t expect the US open another front in India, I do suggest sharing information, tactics and technology among nations.
In Israel, many officials criticized the way the local Mumbai authorithies handle the situation.
For your last comment “terrorist getting desperate” I feel I missed you. This type of terrorists would rather hit you on a soft stomach, and locations are carefully chosen.
I don’t doubt that the target was carefully chosen and that this is the preferred target of the terrorists (Unfortunately, they do not prefer to attack M1-A1 Abrams Tanks else this would be a short conflict).
However, given the obvious attempt to draw another superpower into the war shows that their only salvation lies in the fall of Pakistan and they will pick a fight with anyone to accomplish this.
I also think this was carefully timed to draw attention away from the security deal in Iraq.
Awesome post. I really like your understanding of the situation and the strategy. Will probably work on the front of “War on Terror”. Likely the reason why US is urging India not to make “hasty moves” (like it)
Unfortunately for me, there is a minor hitch. I’m from India, and the LeT is unlikely to be finished by this, since the ISI will resurrect it the minute things calm down.
Pakistan is being held hostage by the Taliban and Al Qaeeda. Not so with LeT. If you look at why LeT exists, its more of a weapon against India than a terrorist organization. Pakistan is unlikely to “put down arms” particularly when its the most used weapon.
Vidyut,
Thanks for you insight. I’m thrilled to have the opinion of an Indian on this topic!
My intent was certainly not to abandon India to the terrorists. My meaning being India is more than capable of handling their own fight against terror unlike Pakistan, which I believe cannot survive without US and NATO assistance against the terrorists.
Not to worry Jack, I understand completely and didn’t feel abandoned at all. In fact, like I said, I truly enjoyed your post. Its off beat, workable and whimsical enough to be just the perfect idea.
India Pakistan is a special love-hate affair that it takes for a part of for these special relationships to occur to you spontaneously
Keep the words flowing!
Vidyut
2 Trackbacks
[...] the war in Iraq drawing down, Afghanistan and Pakistan have become the central front in the global war between Democracy and Radical [...]
[...] early 2008 when Radical Islam acknowledged defeat in Iraq and shifted its focus to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since then, the force of 38,000 American soldiers has been hard pressed to counter the resurgence [...]