Sat 27 Sep 2008
U.S. Economy in Crisis Explained Part 1 of 3: How it Began
Posted by Jason Morgan under Business, Current Events, Economics, Politics
This is all Bill Clinton’s fault. Although Senator Phil Gramm (R-TX) introduced the legislation in 1999, ultimately the burden of blame for the U.S.’s current economic crisis rests with the President who let the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act pass. This is the bill that overturned the part of the Banking Act of 1933, also known as the Glass-Steagall Act, that said commercial banks, those that accept deposits from customers and lend that money to borrowers, could not engage in the practice of underwriting securities.
The banking industry had been pushing extremely hard for the repeal of this part of the Banking Act of 1933. Their argument was that more corporations were turning to investment banks because of lower costs due to less regulation. Commercial banks were losing customers and therefore revenue to both investment banks and foreign banks, many of whom did not have the same regulations that split the activities of deposit acceptance from securities underwriting.
The Banking Act of 1933 was put into place during the Great Depression for very good reason. The practice of underwriting securities is inherently riskier than traditional loans because credit standards are less of a concern due to the nature of the transaction. An investment bank essentially borrows money from a commercial bank to give to a corporation in return for either stock or bond agreements that the investment bank then sells to private investors via the stock exchanges and bond markets.
The investment bank, whose repayment depends upon their ability to sell the securities to investors, care very little about the future financial stability of the entity they gave money to in exchange for the securities because the investors who purchase the securities from the investment bank are taking all of the financial risk assumed with giving money to that entity. The risk to the firm underwriting the security is in the nature of the agreement and the current market dynamics. One of the types of securities causing our current problems is mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Traditionally, mortgage backed securities were considered very low-risk investment instruments because most people paid their mortgages with a very predictable default rate. People were riding the internet stock wave of the late nineteen nineties and did not predict that the stock prices were grossly over-valued and therefore must stabilize. Coupled with the unforeseen tragedy of 9/11 and the subsequent financial market crash, the Federal Reserve systematically lowered interest rates to historic lows to combat the financial crisis at the time.
The resulting low interest rates on mortgages led to an enormous amount of people purchasing homes. Basic economics tells us that if demand increases at a rate greater than supply, then prices increase. Home prices began to skyrocket due to the lowering of interest rates. Increasing home prices starting reaching a point that many people could not meet the requirements for traditional mortgages based on the inflated property values. To respond to this, banks began offering new loan instruments, such as the interest-only mortgage, that bypassed typical credit standards and down payment requirements.
The Federal Reserve always walks an interest rate tight rope, trying to maintain balance between setting rates too low, which leads to inflation (so they say), or being too high, which stifles economic growth through making borrowing money cost-prohibitive. While these historically low interest rates were causing economic growth through real estate profits, all good things must come to an end and the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates by quadrupling them over an eighteen-month period from 2005 into 2006. This caused variable rate mortgages to suddenly become much more expensive on a monthly basis to the borrower. People then began to default on these mortgages in record numbers.
Back to basic economics again: if a large population of borrowers are opting to take the credit hit of defaulting on a mortgage, this leads to a large population of people who can no longer qualify for a mortgage thereby decreasing the demand for homes. Decreasing demand with an ever-increasing supply indefinitely leads to lower prices. Now, commercial banks are financially burdened with a property that is lower in value than the money they lent to someone to buy it, thus accepting the loss.
Investment banks are being hurt in this situation because of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS). When borrowers stopped paying their mortgages, investment banks had to devalue their MBS and take a loss. So, since commercial banks were now allowed to own investment banking firms, ultimately the cash flow of the commercial banks were hurt. This is how commercial banks are now taking huge losses on two fronts; all a result of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999.
Another part in this history is the formation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC), also a product of the Banking Act of 1933 meant to bring an end to the Great Depression. Since the FDIC will have to pay banks’ depositors enormous sums of money for claims should the bank go bankrupt, the government usually attempts other means to avert the need to pay out on deposit insurance for a bank failure. These other means have manifested both directly and indirectly impacted many of the financial crises during 2008: Bear Stearns’ near bankruptcy led to the government relaxation of traditional FTC waiting periods in order to allow JP Morgan Chase to acquire Stearns before it had to liquidate the firm’s assets, the Federal Government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Bank of America acquisition of Merrill Lynch through relaxed FTC regulations, the temporary ban on short selling certain financial sector stocks, the Lehman Brother’s deal, and inexorably to the $700 billion Federal Government bail-out that is still not finalized. These events will be the subject matter for part 2 of the U.S. Economy in Crisis Explained series.
18 Responses to “ U.S. Economy in Crisis Explained Part 1 of 3: How it Began ”
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October 14th, 2008 at 5:54 pm[...] handed to them for a job poorly done. In the midst of a crashing market, we have seen multiple bailouts given to companies that were on the verge of going belly up due to their excessive greed. So for my amusement and I [...]

September 28th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Are the effects of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act irreversible? If our government overturned this act and went back to the way it was, what kind of an effect would that have in our current situation?
September 28th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
I am glad you asked that question. With all of the news abuzz with the recent submission of a bipartisan bail-out measure to the tune of $700 billion, the U.S. government is fundamentally missing the boat. They should only provide such bail-out on the condition of reinstatement of bank holding companies not being allowed to own both commercial and security underwriting banks. Otherwise, we are just giving them money and not correcting the problem. So what happens next, we have to bail them out again in 10 years?
Now, no one wants to do this because at least three of the giant banks would have to divest of their securities underwriting firms. Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, and now Bank of America, who just recently acquired Merrill Lynch, would all have to spin off their investment banking units. Very difficult without a buyer…
September 28th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
That’s what I was thinking. I would imagine it would be difficult to break up these gigantic financial entities. Eventhough it’s a necessary correction…
On another note, I was reading up on this proposed bailout measure and it seems that the government’s $700 billion estimate has been broken up into three tiers.
“The government could get at $250 billion immediately, $100 billion more if the president certified it was necessary, and the last $350 billion with a separate certification — and subject to a congressional resolution of disapproval.”
I thought the $700 billion was what our economy needed to pump our market back up? Why are there provisions that allow our government to take additional money out at other times? Some things I just don’t understand.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
Clearly you do not. They are saying that they are going to try and make it work with $250 billion. If they can’t then they can ask the president for $100 billion more (total so far of $350 billion). If that doesn’t work, they can ask for up to an additional $350 billion more for a TOTAL of $700 billion. It’s not like they are asking for $700 billion now and then $700 billion next year. $700 billion in total, if necessary.
September 28th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Yeah I understood the TOTAL of $700 billion. All I was saying was if their original estimates were $700, why does the gov’t now think they can make it work with $250. It just seems like they are going to have to tap into the other $450 down the road anyway.
September 29th, 2008 at 12:00 am
It kinda reminds me of unnecessarily drawing out a war and not committing, something that our government does all too well.
September 29th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Rineberg, you are the only person in the country who is pissed that they are trying to do this for less money.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:49 am
There are three things I’m hazy on…
1)With a potential $700 billion being spent on fixing the crisis, how does foreign debt factor into all this? After all, we currently owe Japan & China somewhere around $1,000 billion. That number seems insane to me, but then again I know very little about economics on such a large scale.
2)How are the books going to be balanced? It seemed like people were up in arms about the hundred billions in debt the war on terror put us in. But this bail out seems to change the game completely. What is the tax payer burden? I kind of get that the bail out is necessary because it’s an emergency, but why isn’t anybody disclosing how the individual citizen plays a roll in this?
3)Has this event proven that free market capitalism can’t survive without the help of national government? Are we becoming socialist out of necessity?
September 29th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Andrew - all good questions.
1.) Answered in blog Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 Discussion & Analysis.
2.) Also answered in above referenced blog. Short and simple - they are going to try to cover the costs with government bonds and notes (debt issuance) to the public. Anyone can buy these bonds if they so choose. Otherwise, it is still unclear where the funding will come from to avert this disaster, assuming you believe a government bail-out of the private sector is even the answer in the first place.
3.) This is a deep philosophical and political question that hasn’t been definitively answered in millennia. It would be foolish to assume that the mistakes of a few are indicative of an entire system not working. Besides, we are not a free market, as the government would have you believe. Our financial markets are some of the tightest governed in the world. So why do we have so many problems, you ask? Compare it to some African countries who have seen inflation by a factor of a trillion over the course of several months. WE are doing OK compared to that, I would think.
September 29th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Oh, and about the foreign debt thing - the U.S. budget appropriates around $250 billion per year for interest expense. Interest expense is equal to the interest on our government’s debt, same as the interest you pay on your car loan or mortgage. So, chew on that for awhile - we pay $250 billion per year in interest on our global debt. How awesome.
September 29th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Hahaha….that’s a horrible amount of money.
Does the World Bank set interest rates for lending between nations?
September 29th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I guess I am coming off poorly in my previous statements. Allow me to restate, while I understand why the government is bailing out failing banks, I do think that the fact that they are getting bailed out is truly absurd. They took a gamble and lost, and now the government, no I mean the citizens have to bail them out? We didn’t take the risk, they did!
On another note, I am extremely pissed off that our economy has come to this point. Thanks to the info you provided in your blog about the Gramm-Leach-Bliley act, it seems that this problem is nowhere near fixing. And that’s is why I don’t really understand how throwing money at the problem will make it go away. If the gov’t can fix everything with $250 billion that would be great and I truly mean that. I don’t want to pay more than I have to. I just want to see the problem resolved.
September 29th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
The House of Representatives has shot down the Bail-Out.
September 29th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Barely, and it will be back - modified, but back.
September 29th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
How can I find out how my Representitive voted on this? Any websites that publist this? Thanks!
September 30th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Timmy,
Here is a post from the Los Angeles Times about who voted what on Roll Call 674 AKA the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act
September 30th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Thanks, Jack. I had been looking for this intermittently all day.