Note: For the best understanding of the post below, please download the following excel workbook, my Petroleum Demand Analysis.
Petroleum is a commodity that forms one of the cornerstones that make up the foundation of the technological world. Without it, products such as plastics, gasoline, Diesel fuel, kerosene, lubricants, and asphalt would not exist. Unfortunately for us, the supply of petroleum is finite. The more we use it today, the less we have for tomorrow. So the question becomes, “When will the petroleum run out?”The World’s average daily petroleum demand for the first three quarters of 2007 was 85.31 million barrels per day. This sounds like a lot, but without the context of the total available supply this is a meaningless figure.
The Energy Information Administration has graciously posted three estimates for the total available supply of petroleum, which is referred to as the Ultimate Recovery Estimate. The Highest Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 3,896 billion barrels, the Mean Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 3,003 billion barrels, and the Lowest Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 2,248 billion barrels. These estimates are total World supply for all time, meaning that in order to produce a forecast for when the supply will run out, one must subtract the aggregate amount of petroleum already recovered. For the purposes of this analysis 1,000 billion barrels was utilized as the amount already recovered. Note the total recovery was approximately 900 billion barrels in the year 2000, so the 1,000 billion barrels figure came about by adding the cumulative recoveries from 2001-2007 to the 900 billion. This resulted in an approximate answer of 1,000 billion barrels of cumulative recovery (this is conservative, as the cumulative recovery is actually slightly higher than 1,000 billion barrels).
So, “When will the petroleum run out?” The petroleum supply will be fully depleted anywhere from 2028 to 2070, with the highest probability range being between 2036 and 2050. Attached is a Petroleum demand analysis I created that contains all of the detailed assumptions and calculations supporting the conclusions found herein.
Energy Information Administration Analysis
The Energy Independence and Security Act (HR 6), signed into law on December 19, 2007, raised the minimum average fuel efficiency standards for cars, light trucks and SUVs from the current 27.5 miles per gallon (for cars) and 22.5 miles per gallon (for light trucks/SUVs) to 35 miles per gallon by the year 2020. There are a variety of other provisions ranging from efficiency standards on light bulbs to minimum volumes of renewable fuels used as percentage of total fuel. This bill’s goal was to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign petroleum supplies and create an environment that is friendly to renewable energy and fuel technologies. But does it do enough to avert disaster? No.
Carbon Biofuels courtesy of the National Science Foundation, by Nicolle Rager Fuller
Currently, the U.S. represents 24% of total World petroleum demand. The policy changes enacted by the U.S. government therefore only impacts the growth rate of one quarter of the World’s petroleum demand. The remaining 76% of total World petroleum demand is unaffected by The Energy Independence and Security Act. As time goes by, the U.S. represents incrementally smaller percentages of the total World demand. This is because the U.S. demand growth has remained fairly stable at approximately 1% for several decades. China, on the other hand, has seen over 10% growth in their petroleum demand in the last five years. As China industrializes, the sheer magnitude of the country’s population lends itself to massive petroleum demand. China’s petroleum demand will eclipse the U.S.’ as early as 2015. China’s current demand is one third of U.S.’ demand.
Even if China were not such a huge factor in the global petroleum demand picture, U.S. measures to increase fuel efficiency by a paltry 7.5 miles per gallon does not help overall demand decrease at a high enough rate to materially impact the rate at which the Ultimate Recovery Estimate is being drained. What is to be done? There is no doubt about it, the petroleum is running out, and sooner than you might have previously thought. Given the lengthy lead time from development to wide-scale implementation of new technologies, we need to be concerned that the “solutions” scientists come up with for alternative fuels and energy may be too little, too late. Even if developers were able to invent an alternative fuel technology tomorrow, there would be at least five to ten years of research needed to make the technology feasible for wide scale implementation. Then, there is at least another decade involved with actually implementing this new technology. Conservatively, one could say that there is at least a 20 year window from invention to implementation of an alternative fuel or energy source to take the place of petroleum. It is currently 2008, with no development that fits the bill even on the horizon, and the petroleum could run out in as little as 20 years. Granted, the more likely scenario is running out of supply between 2036 and 2050, but that still only leaves less than 50 years to invent a totally new technology and implement it, all the while weaning ourselves from petroleum products. I personally think we are cutting it a little close.
21 Comments
The shock to me, is that oil demand in the U.S. has been virtually constant for decades. But do not be confused by that, we certainly demand way too much crude.
So how do we keep inexpensive cars out of India and China? Otherwise the carbon footprint is going to get a whole lot bigger.
I think the approach of the U.S. should be to remove it’s dependence on oil so that we are not impacted when China and India start demanding enormous quantities of petroleum. It would be hypocritical to tell China and India not to consume oil during post-industrial development. And, as we have seen recently, U.S. interference in foreign affairs is being received worse and worse as time goes on, other countries are not interested in our meddling. Therefore, trying to keep China and India from utilizing the World’s petroleum reserves is not feasible. More attention needs to be paid to removing petroleum as a fuel rather than managing its depletion by other countries.
Hey, you know what? take a look at a young enterpenuer named – Shai Agassi. He was a former executive at SAP (IT giant based in Germany)and now he run a plan to end up the era of gas-powerd auto, with the introduction of Electric Cars. The unique idea is about building a public station to re-energize those cars. Check it on http://www.businessweek.com/february 4th 2008.
The link doesn’t work. Electric cars can be deceiving, depending on the conditions of which the cars are recharged. If you are utilizing a similar power mixture that goes into our current grid, then there will be an increase in fossil fuel consumption and emissions. This may ultimately nullify the benefit received from reduction in gasoline usage. In order for electric cars to work, the recharging stations must be powered by either nuclear or a renewable fuel source to really make a difference.
It’ll be interesting to see how this will effect Venezuela and the Mideast.
Is it too conspiratorial to assume that alternative energy processes are being secretly developed and perfected by all the countries that have a massive stake in the energy trade? After all, the Energy Race has a much bigger payload than the Space Race, and whoever has the first supplies might be buying themselves some time without competition.
Ending the dependence on oil will cripple the economic capacity of OPEC Nation’s. Their only hope will be to achieve peace, and focus on terrorism (like that will ever happen…).
Ending U.S. dependence on oil will certainly hurt the OPEC nations economies. However, by the time the U.S. is even able to start moving away from oil, China and India will be demanding more than the U.S. anyway, and thus the OPEC nations will at least break even.
Firstly, real good job with the research Jay.
Secondly, the U.S. should move on to nuclear energy to power cars, factories, etc. Allow China and India to fully industrialize themselves, while the U.S. looks for an alternative method of energy. The U.S. looks non-hypocritical and generous (in the international community) by demanding less oil and the U.S. looks good (by environmentalists) by seeking other means of attaining energy. The more environmentally friendly energy development gets the more likely businesses will invest, after all public image is everything.
On a side note: Isn’t there a a oil reservoir in Alaska?
When the oil runs out, the world will both blame the US, rightly so I suppose, and expect America to solve the problem. Again rightly so as we are the only country with any reasonable shot at inventing/implementing alternatives on any significant scale.
Let’s see how this in anyway affects America’s issues with oil and energy….
Drill all you want, the fact is oil is a finite resource. We need to start thinking forward not scrounging for ways to keep living in the past.
Amen Jay
Build nukes here. Build nukes now.
When we run out of oil, when ever that may be, I dont think surface transport will be affected as much. What happens to aviation?
Why isn’t anyone thinking of ways to fly people using, say, hybrid planes?
Aja,
I think variations of Natural gas would be sufficient for air travel without the use of petroleum.
Most planes or Helicopters already run on one form of Gas Turbine or another.
As far as hybrid planes go – your going to need to figure out how to do away with 95% of the battery weight needed to hold enough charge to sustain flight.
I’m surprised no one has yet mentioned Hydrogen fuel cells.
Boeing successfully introduced a hydrogen fuel-cell plane in April ‘08…
I know it will never provide all the energy for large passenger airplanes…but companies should begin lining the tops of planes with solar panels. After all, most long-distance large planes fly above cloud level and receive maximum sun.
From the comments posted it seems that most people are living in denial – the suns going to shine tomorrow….
I find the comments here very good. The reality of the whole situation is that soon and very soon humans will have to go back to living life the way “Our ancestors” did. The fact is the only energy source that is possible and excepted by all countries and regions of the globe is Solar and Wind energy. If we can’t use these as a means to power microwaves and ‘what not’ then we are doomed. The fact of the matter is that yes a war will come that will destroy the planet if we don’t stop being selfish. I would like to see people return back to the “tribal village” simple life kind of living. Our time spent flying and car joy riding is coming to an end. We are going to have to travel by bike, animal, boat. The use of airplanes will soon be over. The nuclear power plant idea won’t last because there isn’t enough radiated metal on earth to use forever. The two power sources that have been with use for years, but overlook, will be the scientific breakthrough for tomorrow. The sun has been with use from the beginning. The Firmament that has moved ships shall move windmills and yield energy. If you think other forms of energy are better research there quantity, how they are harnessed, and what is need to make it. After this, one will see the better choice for energy needs, (refrigerator, vacuums, lights, electric ovens) the necessities for a simpler life. I hope people once they realize that urban life will come to an end start to destroy concrete. We are going to need to start farming again so the soil must be present.
I hope you’re prepared to kill 999 out of 1,000 people buddy becuase that’s exactly what your going to have to do if you expect to survive in a “tribal village” civilization. There is no way in hell that the system you describe could work without full scale global genocide.
Equally impractical is your assumption that wind and solar alone can power a civilization as vast and complex as ours. We currently get about 1/10 of 1% our electricity from wind and solar, so I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.
The LifeObserver is right, Jack, the days of the artificial environment are numbered. and yes, the artificial human too, who’s only job, is to consume and watch television. I feel we all better convert to Altruism before it’s too late; ” cause you are me, and we are all together”, I heard that line in a song somewhere. I’m sorry Jack, I know your scared, But watching a Planet turn from a Sea of Forests to a Sea of Roof-tops, does not help anyone or anything, for long. Jack? what happened at Three mile Island.
Michael, you make me laugh….can’t wait to hear Jack’s reply.
5 Trackbacks
[...] natural resource, which means it will run out at some point. This will most likely happen between 2036 and 2050. We can’t change this. This leaves us with only one relevant [...]
[...] natural resource, which means it will run out at some point. This will most likely happen between 2036 and 2050. We can’t change this. This leaves us with only one relevant [...]
[...] fairly stable in terms of petroleum demand since the 1970’s and industrializing nations are increasing their demand at much higher rates than the [...]
[...] When will the Oil Run Out? – (babeled.com) “So, “When will the petroleum run out?†The petroleum supply will be fully depleted anywhere from 2028 to 2070, with the highest probability range being between 2036 and 2050. The article contains a detailed breakdown of Oil use, and the remaining amounts of Crude that can be recovered from the Earth.“ [...]
[...] Turkey Point consists of five generating units. Units 1 and 2 burn oil and natural gas producing 400 MW each. Units 3 and 4 are Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) that [...]