Note: For the best understanding of the post below, please download the following excel workbook, my Petroleum Demand Analysis.
Petroleum is a commodity that forms one of the cornerstones that make up the foundation of the technological world. Without it, products such as plastics, gasoline, Diesel fuel, kerosene, lubricants, and asphalt would not exist. Unfortunately for us, the supply of petroleum is finite. The more we use it today, the less we have for tomorrow. So the question becomes, “When will the petroleum run out?”The World’s average daily petroleum demand for the first three quarters of 2007 was 85.31 million barrels per day. This sounds like a lot, but without the context of the total available supply this is a meaningless figure.
The Energy Information Administration has graciously posted three estimates for the total available supply of petroleum, which is referred to as the Ultimate Recovery Estimate. The Highest Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 3,896 billion barrels, the Mean Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 3,003 billion barrels, and the Lowest Ultimate Recovery Estimate is 2,248 billion barrels. These estimates are total World supply for all time, meaning that in order to produce a forecast for when the supply will run out, one must subtract the aggregate amount of petroleum already recovered. For the purposes of this analysis 1,000 billion barrels was utilized as the amount already recovered. Note the total recovery was approximately 900 billion barrels in the year 2000, so the 1,000 billion barrels figure came about by adding the cumulative recoveries from 2001-2007 to the 900 billion. This resulted in an approximate answer of 1,000 billion barrels of cumulative recovery (this is conservative, as the cumulative recovery is actually slightly higher than 1,000 billion barrels).
So, “When will the petroleum run out?” The petroleum supply will be fully depleted anywhere from 2028 to 2070, with the highest probability range being between 2036 and 2050. Attached is a Petroleum demand analysis I created that contains all of the detailed assumptions and calculations supporting the conclusions found herein.
Energy Information Administration Analysis
The Energy Independence and Security Act (HR 6), signed into law on December 19, 2007, raised the minimum average fuel efficiency standards for cars, light trucks and SUVs from the current 27.5 miles per gallon (for cars) and 22.5 miles per gallon (for light trucks/SUVs) to 35 miles per gallon by the year 2020. There are a variety of other provisions ranging from efficiency standards on light bulbs to minimum volumes of renewable fuels used as percentage of total fuel. This bill’s goal was to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign petroleum supplies and create an environment that is friendly to renewable energy and fuel technologies. But does it do enough to avert disaster? No.
Carbon Biofuels courtesy of the National Science Foundation, by Nicolle Rager Fuller
Currently, the U.S. represents 24% of total World petroleum demand. The policy changes enacted by the U.S. government therefore only impacts the growth rate of one quarter of the World’s petroleum demand. The remaining 76% of total World petroleum demand is unaffected by The Energy Independence and Security Act. As time goes by, the U.S. represents incrementally smaller percentages of the total World demand. This is because the U.S. demand growth has remained fairly stable at approximately 1% for several decades. China, on the other hand, has seen over 10% growth in their petroleum demand in the last five years. As China industrializes, the sheer magnitude of the country’s population lends itself to massive petroleum demand. China’s petroleum demand will eclipse the U.S.’ as early as 2015. China’s current demand is one third of U.S.’ demand.
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Even if China were not such a huge factor in the global petroleum demand picture, U.S. measures to increase fuel efficiency by a paltry 7.5 miles per gallon does not help overall demand decrease at a high enough rate to materially impact the rate at which the Ultimate Recovery Estimate is being drained. What is to be done? There is no doubt about it, the petroleum is running out, and sooner than you might have previously thought. Given the lengthy lead time from development to wide-scale implementation of new technologies, we need to be concerned that the “solutions” scientists come up with for alternative fuels and energy may be too little, too late. Even if developers were able to invent an alternative fuel technology tomorrow, there would be at least five to ten years of research needed to make the technology feasible for wide scale implementation. Then, there is at least another decade involved with actually implementing this new technology. Conservatively, one could say that there is at least a 20 year window from invention to implementation of an alternative fuel or energy source to take the place of petroleum. It is currently 2008, with no development that fits the bill even on the horizon, and the petroleum could run out in as little as 20 years. Granted, the more likely scenario is running out of supply between 2036 and 2050, but that still only leaves less than 50 years to invent a totally new technology and implement it, all the while weaning ourselves from petroleum products. I personally think we are cutting it a little close.
The shock to me, is that oil demand in the U.S. has been virtually constant for decades. But do not be confused by that, we certainly demand way too much crude.
So how do we keep inexpensive cars out of India and China? Otherwise the carbon footprint is going to get a whole lot bigger.
I think the approach of the U.S. should be to remove it’s dependence on oil so that we are not impacted when China and India start demanding enormous quantities of petroleum. It would be hypocritical to tell China and India not to consume oil during post-industrial development. And, as we have seen recently, U.S. interference in foreign affairs is being received worse and worse as time goes on, other countries are not interested in our meddling. Therefore, trying to keep China and India from utilizing the World’s petroleum reserves is not feasible. More attention needs to be paid to removing petroleum as a fuel rather than managing its depletion by other countries.
Hey, you know what? take a look at a young enterpenuer named – Shai Agassi. He was a former executive at SAP (IT giant based in Germany)and now he run a plan to end up the era of gas-powerd auto, with the introduction of Electric Cars. The unique idea is about building a public station to re-energize those cars. Check it on http://www.businessweek.com/february 4th 2008.
The link doesn’t work. Electric cars can be deceiving, depending on the conditions of which the cars are recharged. If you are utilizing a similar power mixture that goes into our current grid, then there will be an increase in fossil fuel consumption and emissions. This may ultimately nullify the benefit received from reduction in gasoline usage. In order for electric cars to work, the recharging stations must be powered by either nuclear or a renewable fuel source to really make a difference.
Funny thing about electric cars is how the oil companies bought all the patent copyrights. By doing this, they could control the production of electric cars to a minimum making them outrageously expensive while at the same time maximizing profits off oil. Corporate oil giants would rather drain the earth dry of oil to maximize profits before exploiting another energy source. Too bad in the end, it will cost the entire human race and we will all die from the pollution created. Even the rich cannot escape polluted air, oceans, and the land that grows food for all organisms. Peak oil doesn’t really matter because with a profit motive system (i.e capitalism) we will fight each other for control over resources while poisoning ourselves. The human race will not last through the next century, it is an inevitable extinction as all organisms eventually become extinct.
It’ll be interesting to see how this will effect Venezuela and the Mideast.
Is it too conspiratorial to assume that alternative energy processes are being secretly developed and perfected by all the countries that have a massive stake in the energy trade? After all, the Energy Race has a much bigger payload than the Space Race, and whoever has the first supplies might be buying themselves some time without competition.
Ending the dependence on oil will cripple the economic capacity of OPEC Nation’s. Their only hope will be to achieve peace, and focus on terrorism (like that will ever happen…).
Ending U.S. dependence on oil will certainly hurt the OPEC nations economies. However, by the time the U.S. is even able to start moving away from oil, China and India will be demanding more than the U.S. anyway, and thus the OPEC nations will at least break even.
Firstly, real good job with the research Jay.
Secondly, the U.S. should move on to nuclear energy to power cars, factories, etc. Allow China and India to fully industrialize themselves, while the U.S. looks for an alternative method of energy. The U.S. looks non-hypocritical and generous (in the international community) by demanding less oil and the U.S. looks good (by environmentalists) by seeking other means of attaining energy. The more environmentally friendly energy development gets the more likely businesses will invest, after all public image is everything.
On a side note: Isn’t there a a oil reservoir in Alaska?
yes there is suspected to be huge oil reservoirs in alaska and antartica, however there are laws protecting from any drilling
Not anymore…Obama opened up large tracts of Alaskan offshore parcels for oil exploration by several current leaseholders including the US division of Royal Dutch Shell.
Yes, we have oil in Alaska, but its a known fact that all of it combined wouldn’t even last the US 2 years. 515 days to be exact. We are going to run our race into the ground because we don’t wake up and become sustainable.
We live in a world of MONEY MONEY MONEY run by greedy greedy men.
When the oil runs out, the world will both blame the US, rightly so I suppose, and expect America to solve the problem. Again rightly so as we are the only country with any reasonable shot at inventing/implementing alternatives on any significant scale.
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Let’s see how this in anyway affects America’s issues with oil and energy….
Drill all you want, the fact is oil is a finite resource. We need to start thinking forward not scrounging for ways to keep living in the past.
Amen Jay
Build nukes here. Build nukes now.
When we run out of oil, when ever that may be, I dont think surface transport will be affected as much. What happens to aviation?
Why isn’t anyone thinking of ways to fly people using, say, hybrid planes?
Aja,
I think variations of Natural gas would be sufficient for air travel without the use of petroleum.
Most planes or Helicopters already run on one form of Gas Turbine or another.
As far as hybrid planes go – your going to need to figure out how to do away with 95% of the battery weight needed to hold enough charge to sustain flight.
I’m surprised no one has yet mentioned Hydrogen fuel cells.
Boeing successfully introduced a hydrogen fuel-cell plane in April ’08…
I know it will never provide all the energy for large passenger airplanes…but companies should begin lining the tops of planes with solar panels. After all, most long-distance large planes fly above cloud level and receive maximum sun.
From the comments posted it seems that most people are living in denial – the suns going to shine tomorrow….
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I find the comments here very good. The reality of the whole situation is that soon and very soon humans will have to go back to living life the way “Our ancestors” did. The fact is the only energy source that is possible and excepted by all countries and regions of the globe is Solar and Wind energy. If we can’t use these as a means to power microwaves and ‘what not’ then we are doomed. The fact of the matter is that yes a war will come that will destroy the planet if we don’t stop being selfish. I would like to see people return back to the “tribal village” simple life kind of living. Our time spent flying and car joy riding is coming to an end. We are going to have to travel by bike, animal, boat. The use of airplanes will soon be over. The nuclear power plant idea won’t last because there isn’t enough radiated metal on earth to use forever. The two power sources that have been with use for years, but overlook, will be the scientific breakthrough for tomorrow. The sun has been with use from the beginning. The Firmament that has moved ships shall move windmills and yield energy. If you think other forms of energy are better research there quantity, how they are harnessed, and what is need to make it. After this, one will see the better choice for energy needs, (refrigerator, vacuums, lights, electric ovens) the necessities for a simpler life. I hope people once they realize that urban life will come to an end start to destroy concrete. We are going to need to start farming again so the soil must be present.
I hope you’re prepared to kill 999 out of 1,000 people buddy becuase that’s exactly what your going to have to do if you expect to survive in a “tribal village” civilization. There is no way in hell that the system you describe could work without full scale global genocide.
Equally impractical is your assumption that wind and solar alone can power a civilization as vast and complex as ours. We currently get about 1/10 of 1% our electricity from wind and solar, so I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.
The LifeObserver is right, Jack, the days of the artificial environment are numbered. and yes, the artificial human too, who’s only job, is to consume and watch television. I feel we all better convert to Altruism before it’s too late; ” cause you are me, and we are all together”, I heard that line in a song somewhere. I’m sorry Jack, I know your scared, But watching a Planet turn from a Sea of Forests to a Sea of Roof-tops, does not help anyone or anything, for long. Jack? what happened at Three mile Island.
Michael, you make me laugh….can’t wait to hear Jack’s reply.
Jack and whoever else that don’t understand with the worlds Mega, End of society, last days, Were all going to die “Economy” here is some enlightenment for your eyes and ears. Also killing 1 person is too much for me!!! Watch these videos
http://www.cinemahaven.com/2009/11/18/food-inc/
http://www.youtube.com/user/bill1224602#p/u/2/ej7zIknklO8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-CrNlilZho ( the doc EndGame)
Research The TFL movement please, The NWO please, The economy PLEASE!!! for Your Future and you Childrens Future!!!!!
If I could understand what your are saying I might venture to comment.
Let the oil wells and gas chambers empty as soon as possible so that this planet can have a break from the damages our dependency on oil has done to this our home.
Mankind has destroyed our home.
I think Johnathan is sooooo cute. Do you want to hang out some time hansome ; )
I hate oil spills
Its real simple , we had different ages as man has gotten more advanced. This too is just an age that will eventuallty cease to exist. All the resources to make the computers , cars, roads and houses will eventually run out because man remains the only speices unchecked by any other. Tribal life will return, i agree with Life but ask yourself this how many are gonna make it? because when room runs out ALL Mammals act the same… we kill each other.
Besides the end of oil in 30-50 years, it does seem that we’re on a collision course with scarcity in general. With 7 Billion people on the planet now and that number expected to keep climbing, and water shortages already being experienced, you can bet the escalating tensions will create more international conflicts (as has caused ALL wars…). Unless we come up with a magic bullet this planet is headed on a collision course with scarcity. Nuclear seems like a viable mid-term solution. That should buy us some time.
Well, I hate to disappoint those of you who stand on street corners proclaiming “THE END IS NEAR!”, scientists have estimated that nuclear energy could potentially sustain human electrical requirements for billions of years.
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/nuclear-faq.html
Also, with hydrogen fuel cells becoming a more accepted alternative, and the increase in cheaper turbo diesel/bio diesel cars available, we’re probably going to be fine. Global warming and ecological effects are irreversible at this point, but as far as the human race is concerned we really aren’t that badly off.
Think about it for a second: The effort put into drilling oil out of the ground seems ridiculous when Hydrogen–an extremely viable source of energy– can be created by a bunch of 12 year olds in a classroom with two electrodes and a glass of water. Eliminating the oil infrastructure and retrofitting current petrol stations with compressed hydrogen is NOTHING compared to the effort we put in every single day to get our precious oil from miles underground. The only thing we really need is for car manufacturers to make hydrogen fuel cell cars more widely available. Although, yes, that last bit is quite a hurdle, it’s better than choosing the easy road and reverting to tribal society. Please, that is just a load of bullocks.
None of what you are talking about truly matters because humans will stay at war until energy, food, and natural resources are abundant for everyone. This will never happen in a profit system. The earth’s eco-systems have been in decline for over 40 years. All of the indicator species for the human race has been dying off. These species and ec0-systems are what sustain human life more than energy. Even if we harness all the energy as efficient as possible, it will not matter because we have already pretty much destroyed the environment that supports us. The fact is that with all roads, concrete, and building structure the world’s ground water supply is less than 10%. We will run out of water by draining all our aquafurs and the global food supply will diminish. It is ironic because it took humans to work together cooperatively to evolve and now we compete for everything. As the late great Carl Sagan once said “the world is beginning to wake up and see the planet as a single organism, and an organism at war with itself is doomed.”
i agree, eliminating the oil infrastructure is completely feasible when your perspective is brought to what extent we reach to obtain the inefficient stuff. I’d say that nuclear power is our best mid-term solution, but then our situation lies at the hands of politics. I don’t see how everyone can win (and avoid resource war) especially with the continued industrializing of many countries (China). How can it be smart to industrialize and build up a system dependent on oil NOW? is anyone thinking long term? How can things remain politicaly stable when many places are still converting their civilizations into ones dependent on oil? We can achieve nearby stability with nuclear power, we have a window of chance to survive as far as science goes but someones going to push the button. Maybe if we expand the U.N and try to seek a single global power, then domestic threat becomes the only issue? But can we live like that without civil war erupting? I would love to see the difference we could make if the great world powers came together and put top priority focus on advancing science. If scientific research was the largest receiver of our nations’ budgeting. Imagine a world of humans with one focus: Advancement of science. So many issues: population control, nuclear arms managment, feeding the world, powering the future civilizations, powering the now civilizations, terrorism, survival… We have the ability to succeed, the only thing that stands in our way of survival is the decisions made by others (most of whom are defective at analyzing our situation, or are thinking extremely short-term). WE HAVE WHAT WE NEED PLEASE DONT RUIN THIS.
Since 1890 there has been a solution to the delima about an alternate fuel to be independent from fossel fuels. The fuel is C2 H6 O which is Ethanol. Every vehicle which runs today on Gas can use Ethanol 100% with very small modifications to the timing and injectors or carburetor to use Ethanol. The government has said that there is not enough land to grow products to make Ethanol and this is false. The government has stopped paying to not grow large protions of USA land which has released millions of acres to grow products to make Ethanol and if it uses Sorghum Hybrid which makes 2 to 3 crops per year making 702 gallons per crop when corn only makes 400 gallons per acre and only one crop. We have found a hybrid which will grow in cold country as well as worm country and uses 1/4 less water and is bug resistant. This is the solution even South America uses 100% ethanol.
There is only two types of energy fixed energy and mobile energy. Fixed energy only makes electric power and mobile energy moves people and products to the market. Without mobile energy nothing moves. Some say hybrid vehicles but 70% or more can not afford a new hybrid vehicle. Every vehicle today can run on alcohol and the means there is only two alcohols. Methanol made from oil and Ethanol made from growing things. I believe it is clear what to do is to use Ethanol which does not use Methanol and is dependent on oil. The use of ethanol is clean and will run cooler in an engine and is cheap to produce at cost of $0.80 per gallon.